The latest GDP report by the National
Bureau of Statistics today indicates growth in the Nigerian economy
during Fourth Quarter of last year – the Q4 2019 and Full Year (FY)
2019.
While we welcome the report, it is the determination of the Buhari
Administration to continue to drive the economy towards further growth
and shared prosperity as we continue our active engagements with States
of the Federation in that effort, because as the President said recently
“the economy is the most delicate and sensitive of all aspects of
national life.”
Below is a statement on the development by the Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters, Dr. Adeyemi Dipeolu:
“The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.55% (year-on year), in Q4
2019. This reflects an increase of 0.17% over Q4 2018 (2.38%). This
figure is also an increase of 0.27% compared to the preceding quarter
(Q3 2019). Aggregate GDP stood at N39.5trillion while in real terms, GDP
is at N19.53trillion in Q4 2019.
The growth in Q4 2019 is the highest rate since Nigeria came out of the
recession in 2017. This feeds into the estimated overall GDP growth for
2019 which is 2.27%. This represents an increase on
2018’s growth rate of 0.36%, and shows an improving trend since the
recession, of increasing growth in GDP.
The non-oil sector contributed 92.68% to GDP in the period with the oil
sector contributing 7.32%. While the oil sector has seen an undulating
trend over the past few years, the non-oil sector has a more stable and
slightly upward growth trajectory. The non-oil sector’s contribution is
on the back of Agriculture 26.1%, Industries 20.27%, and Services
53.64%.
In the oil sector, average production was 2million barrels per day
(2mbpd) in Q4 2019. The important thing to note is that production
remained consistently around this range in 2019. The real growth of the
oil sector in Q4 2019 was 6.36% year-on-year (6.49% in Q3 2019). For
2019, the oil sector recorded growth of 4.59% (0.97% in Q4 2018)
The non-oil sector grew by 2.26% in real terms in Q4 2019. This is a
slight reduction compared with 2.7% in Q4 2018, but higher than 1.82% in
the previous quarter.
The growth in the non-oil sector is driven by Information and
Communication Technology, Agriculture, Manufacturing and Financial and
Insurance Services.
Agriculture grew by 13.8% in Q4 2019, which is lower than 18.58% and
14.88% recorded in Q4 2018 and Q3 2019. Sector contribution is 22.12%
which is higher than recorded in 2018. Real growth in the sector was 2.31% (year-on-year).
In Manufacturing, the growth is 26.29% for the period, which is less
than 33.57% and 39.69% in Q4 2018 and Q3 2019 respectively. Sector
contribution is 11.37%, which is higher than the same period in 2018. Real GDP growth was 1.24% (year on year)
The Information and Communication Sector (Telecommunication mainly)
recorded growth of 9.86% in the period which is lower than 14.82% and
10.99% in Q4 2019 and Q3 2018 respectively. Sector contribution in 2019
was 10.68% which is higher than the same period in 2018. Real GDP growth was 8.5%.
Finance and Services sector grew at 23.3% in nominal terms. This is
higher than the preceding quarter and the similar period in 2018. The
Sectors annual contribution in 2019 was 2.93%. In real terms, this growth was at 20.18%.
Economic growth is reflective of a healthy economy and points to the
policies of government towards specific priority sectors. The report
shows that Nigeria is growing, even higher than some international
analysts had predicted.
This growth can be attributed to the robust policies of the government
to diversify the economy, renewed security efforts/reduced vandalism of
pipelines, and improved consumption/production of local goods (Rice)
etc.
Overall, the Nigerian economy performed reasonably despite external
shocks, internal issues (border closure), tightening of monetary policy,
and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s continued defense of the Naira.
There is also some improvement expected going forward with less
volatility in oil prices, reduced effect of disease on crops (Lassa
fever), more support to SMEs, early passage of the budget and continued
diversification of the economy.”
