CBN Business Expectation Survey : Outlook for August shows greater confidence.

The business outlook for August 2019 showed greater confidence on the macro economy with 64.1 index points.

The Business Expectations Survey in July 2019 by the statistics department of the Central Bank of Nigeria shows that At 28.1 index points, respondents expressed optimism on the overall confidence index (CI) on the macro economy in the month of July 2019.

The respondent firms were made up of small, medium and large corporations covering both import- and export-oriented businesses expressed optimism on the macro economy in July 2019.

The positive outlook by type of business in July 2019 were driven by businesses that are neither import- nor export-oriented, both import- and export-oriented (4.8 points), import-oriented (3.4 points), and those that are export-related (0.7 points).

The employment outlook index by sector showed that the services sector indicates higher employment expansion plans in the next month, with an index of (27.0 points) followed by wholesale/retail trade (21.0points), industrial sector (20.6 points) and construction sector (5.9 points).

Firms identified insufficient power supply, high interest rate, financial problems, unfavorable economic climate, unclear economic laws and insufficient demand as major factors constraining business activity in July 2019.

They  expects the Naira to appreciate in the current month, next month and next twelve months. Level of inflation is expected to increase slightly in both the next six months and the next twelve months; borrowing rate is expected to rise in the current month, fall next month and increase in the next twelve months.

Respondent firms expect borrowing rates to rise in the current month fall in the next month, and rise in the next twelve months as the confidence indices stood at 0.9, -2.9 and 0.8 points, respectively.

The respondents’ average expected inflation rate in the next six months and the next twelve months stood at 11.5 and 11.6 percent, respectively.

Respondents anticipate better economic conditions as their index of economic growth rose in the short run with an index of 33.3, 48.7 and 60.6 points for the current month, next six months and next twelve months, respectively.



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