It is projected that the world’s population will continue to grow and will reach nearly 10 billion by 2050. While in other regions growth will slow significantly, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the population is projected to double by 2050, an expansion of nearly 10 times relative to 1960, from 227 million to 2.2 billion.
The Demographer, Development Data Group, World Bank Emi Suzuki the author of the reports said that the share of Sub-Saharan Africa in the world’s population is projected to grow as well. In 1960, the share of the region was just 7 percent, but this has increased to 14 percent in 2018, and is projected to reach 23 percent by 2050. Globally, almost 1 in 4 people will be Sub-Saharan African in 2050, whereas the ratio was 1 in 13 in 1960.
This is largely due to continuously higher fertility rates in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to the rest of the world. Today, on average, women there have 4.8 children per woman, compared with less than 3 children per woman worldwide, and the fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain substantially higher than in any other region for the next few decades.
The size of the world’s population is the result of fertility and mortality in the past years – births and deaths. In fact, there is a strong correlation between fertility and mortality. Women tend to have more children where children are more likely to die, and bear fewer children where their child’s risk of dying is lower. In all regions, both mortality and fertility are lowering, but in Sub-Saharan Africa both fertility and mortality are higher than in other parts of the world, and fertility tends to be higher for a given level of child mortality, when compared to other regions, such as South Asia.